Member-only story
Why was it that in ancient times people were not vaccinated but their immune system was more immune to people today who are vaccinated?
OK, let me explain why this is so, but let me open with an example.
During the Second World War, a mathematician named Abraham Wald was assigned to find the location of the weaknesses of the newest fighter planes. Of all the combat aircraft on duty, of course not all of them survived. Of the fighters that survived, Wald found the spots on the plane that were hit the most. These places are the area around the wing and middle hull of the aircraft.
On the other hand, the cockpit, propellers and stern of the plane that Wald examined did not suffer any damage. These areas are completely free of bullets.
Now, based on Wald’s data, where are the areas that deserve to be given thicker protection?
If your answer is the areas that are given a red dot as in the picture, then you have become a victim of survivorship bias, where a data or statement only counts survivors and cases that fail are not counted. Areas that should be given extra protection are those that are still intact. Why is that? Because if you get shot in an area that has a red dot, the plane will still be safe. This means that the aircraft that did not survive was shot in an area without a…
